Executive Summary
- Stock Performance: Over the past 8 quarters, stock moved from $171 (Mar24) to $272 (Dec25), a total return of +59%. The stock outperformed fundamentals driven by multiple expansion on AI optimism, iPhone 17 cycle expectations, and Services momentum.
- Revenue + Margin Trend: Revenue YoY accelerated dramatically from -4% (Mar24) to +16% (Dec25), driven by iPhone 17 success and Services growth (+14% annually). Operating margin expanded from 31% to 35%, benefiting from favorable product mix and Services contribution.
- TTM Operating Profit: TTM OP grew from $129.4B to $154.2B (+19%). TTM OP QoQ is accelerating, currently at +6% (Dec25), up from +1-2% in mid-2024, reflecting strong leverage on revenue growth.
- Cash & Debt Health: TTM FCF/OP ratio remained strong at 67-81% range. Debt/EBITDA improved from 0.8x to 0.7x, indicating excellent financial health with minimal leverage risk.
Financial Sustainability Verdict: SUSTAINABLE
Apple's financial profile is highly sustainable, supported by: (1) world-class brand creating premium pricing power, (2) Services ecosystem generating high-margin recurring revenue with 1B+ paid subscribers, (3) massive scale economies in hardware production, and (4) dominant 20% global smartphone market share with highest customer loyalty in the industry.
Stock Price vs TTM Adj OP
Daily stock prices overlaid with quarterly TTM Adjusted Operating Profit
● Stock Price (right axis) | ● TTM Adj OP in $mil (left axis)